How to Be an Ambulance-Chasing Contrarian

1. Stocks in good companies have been subverted for years when those companies happen to be located in countries where the government overspends. Some past examples include Turkey and Thailand in the 1990s.

2. Opportunities present themselves when a government fails to respond effectively to a financial crisis: Japan, Korea, and Malaysia. Recent examples include Turkey and Argentina.

3. Similar to #1 and #2, read the news to figure out which countries are the year's "Dogs of the World." Don't bet on opportunities from all the countries, as each comes with its own unique risk. Be sure to guard against currency exposure as well. For examples, last year's (2018) were Turkey, Russia, South Korea, and Italy.

4. Companies that have exposure, or are a direct plays on a depressed commodity cycle. Recent examples that come to mind include platinum, copper, potash, and fertilizer companies.

5. Finding road-kill companies, and selling them when they dust themselves off. To be more specific, those that are suffering from acute, but reversible problems. You might find yourself saying "ick!", which can be good sign, and could mean that you've found yourself an opportunity. Examples include turnarounds, companies recently emerging from bankruptcy, companies where CEOs have committed fraud (Renault), or those suffering from heavy litigation (Bayer).

Popular Posts